China will import alloyed aluminium ingots (produced from secondary aluminium) from Europe and elsewhere instead of scrap and may increase exports of semi-finished aluminium products, at higher value and prices than alloyed ingots, while reducing the same (conversion) business in Europe and elsewhere. Since the tariff went into effect on June 1, forward-pricing has been stable, indicating that few investors anticipate an end to the tariff policy in the short term (Figure 1). He is also one of CME Group’s spokespeople on global economic, financial and geopolitical conditions. Demand from flat steel users has been particularly strong - for example, refrigerator production rose by 25.8% year-on-year. “With primary aluminum demand expected to fall 13% in the U.S. in 2020, a response from one of the major producers was what the market needed,” said Doug Hilderhoff, an analyst at CRU Group. The aluminium market is oversupplied despite many people forecasting a deficit, consultancy Harbor Aluminum’s managing director Jorge Vazquez told delegates at the LME Week seminar. Bauxite Supply and Demand Fundamentals The aluminium industry is no longer as integrated as it used to be – pricing power is shifting upstream to alumina and bauxite producers. Understand how CME Group can help you navigate new initial margin regulatory and reporting requirements. Protect your portfolio with Metals futures and options. All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. In the first half of 2015, global aluminium demand rose by 6.3% to 28.6 million tonnes as a result of stronger demand in North America and the EU. In the first nine months of 2019, China produced 26.37 million tonnes of aluminium, up 1.1% from a year earlier. As well as a five-year view, we also provide a 25-year forecast for aluminium supply, demand and prices. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. SMM data showed that stocks across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, decreased to 859,000 tonnes as of October 28. As such, when it comes to aluminum, we would be inclined to pay more attention to the Li Keqiang measure of growth than to official Chinese GDP. The main downside risk to U.S. aluminum prices could be a sudden removal of tariffs. Material demand and supply are broadly linked to energy, water, and climate change. While tariffs have a direct impact upon regional pricing, especially in North America, they could also have indirect consequences for aluminum prices generally. Erik Norland is Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group. By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in July contracts eased by 25 paise, or 0.18 per cent, to Rs 136.50 per kg in a business turnover of 810 lots. Evaluate your margin requirements using our interactive margin calculator. The demand shock to companies dependent on aluminum cans is hard to overstate, according to Molson Coors. For instance, reports on mining operations 4 in India have indicated that despite relevant businesses being deemed “essential” (and thus allowed to remain open during lockdowns), activity is slowing down significantly. The reason for this is a well – or otherwise – oversupplied market, slowing global growth and exhaustion from the prolonged US-China trade negotiations. Roughly half of worldwide semi-finished aluminum products in 2019 were consumed by the transport and construction industries, each corresponding to approximately a quarter of the total demand. The September daily rate was the highest since June. Social inventories of primary aluminium in China continued to fall, as consumption remained robust. But output dropped 2.77% month-on-month. However, should the U.S. apply tariffs to a wider set of goods or increase the tariffs from 10% to 25%, the economic impact on China will start to be measurable. “Many hold the view that the western world is in a significant aluminium deficit, but we see a surplus,” Vazquez said, pointing to LME prices that have fallen by around 40% since April last year. Sign up to our weekly newsletter! ET Hear from active traders about their experience adding CME Group futures and options on futures to their portfolio. According to Fastmarkets, the aluminium 6063 extrusion billet premium, delivered Midwest US, fell to 7-9 cents per lb ($ 154.3/t – $198.4/t), down by half a cent from the previously assessed range of 7.5-9.5 cents per lb on October 11. The Li Keqiang index correlates aluminum prices at between 0.5 and 0.6 up to five quarters in advance (Figure 3). Production amounted to 47.549 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2019, dropping 0.99% from 48.023 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2018. China’s estimated primary aluminium production stood at 2.878 million tonnes in September, a decline of 3.2% y/y, IAI data further showed. World primary aluminium production fell in September to 5.163 million tonnes, down 2.6% year-on-year and 3.12% on the month, according to the latest data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Demand for aluminium in North America improved by 5.6% in comparison with 2014. Parallel with new types of alloys new techniques of material shaping/designing are established and used. Any slowing in the Chinese economy will make it harder to absorb the vast amount of aluminum being mined each year. U.S. tariffs have raised U.S. aluminum prices but may be lowering prices elsewhere. Many forms of alloy are made by blending in … Despite many contradictory estimates and forecasts, the consensus among all major producers is that global aluminium demand growth will be flat (around zero) this year. The producers had to supply aluminium to LME warehouses as they could not reduce the volumes of metal production fast enough after the decline in demand. The reason why China matters so much to aluminum is simple. Industrial activity is expected to have shrunk for the sixth month in October, a Reuters poll showed, suggesting hardly any relief from slowing global demand and the trade war. The demand for aluminium decreased abruptly, while the price of a tonne of aluminium dropped from USD 3,200 to USD 1,200. After remaining elevated, in the range of $1,850 per metric ton to $1,950 per metric ton, aluminum prices decreased in the second half of 2019, to reach close to … Disclaimer  |  Privacy Policy  |  Cookie Policy  |  Terms of Use  |  Data Terms of Use  |  Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement  |  Report a Security Concern. China consumes 40-50% of the global aluminum supply each year. Steel production also increased in an annual comparison but, despite this, inventories at warehouses have been steadily going down since early October, indicating strong demand through the whole of the supply chain, although stocks increased slightly in late … Adkins also said this had been partly offset by the restart of China Zhongwang Holdings’ smelter in the north eastern province of Liaoning and a capacity addition by Xinfa in Guangxi in China’s south. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. Access real-time data, charts, analytics and news from anywhere at anytime. Press Release Europe Aluminum Market Demand and Supply, Production Analysis and Opportunity Assessment 2020 to 2025 Published: July 26, 2020 at 9:00 a.m. The country is also a significant aluminum producer and ran a large trade surplus of of aluminum in 2012. Get quick access to tools and premium content, or customize a portfolio and set alerts to follow the market. However, the latest forecasts indicate that the demand growth for aluminium will be between 0 and 1% y/y, while CRU Group predicts the market to shift into surplus in the fourth quarter with 185,000 tonnes, after deficits of 1.286 million tonnes in the second quarter and 467,000 tones in the third quarter. The aluminium industry is facing a huge supply glut that could trigger thousands of jobs losses as the coronavirus pandemic forces key customers to halt production. The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. Aluminium prices will see only modest growth in 2020 as the market moves into surplus, hit by a combination of a slowing demand growth and continued gains in supply. The latter remains the main contributor to depressed markets and metal prices. Modern Slavery Act Transparency Statement, By If China slows further and, if it devalues its currency, aluminum prices could risk taking a major slide. Various aluminium alloys, all kinds and generations of advanced high strength steels, then magnesium, composite materials (carbon fiber) and various plastic materials are the main to be used in automobiles to achieve that goal. All future automobiles will need to satisfy stringent emission standards and the best way to do it with exciting technologies is toreduce their weight. Any slowdown in China could create a global supply glut that could depress prices, especially in Europe and Japan. Aluminum isn’t an exception. In the Middle East, primary aluminium production increased by 4.35% year-on-yea… The London Metal Exchange index of six base metals inched up only 1% so far this year, held back by worries about a possible global recession and the trade war. While Chinese demand for aluminium alloy is booming, domestic supply has struggled to keep pace. Prior to the tariffs, U.S. prices were about 10% higher than the global average. Per Paul Adkins, managing director of AZ China, the Xinfa and Hongqiao incidents took about 1,300 tonnes a day from the market. Aluminum prices in the U.S. are on the rise and could lead to reduced consumption and a glut in Europe and Asia. And it is cheap. Other than nickel and lead, base metal prices have been trading lower this year, with aluminium the second worst performer, and tin last. The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium price will maintain its upward momentum in the first half of 2021 due to strong demand before trending gradually lower in the second half of the year on increased supply, market participants and analysts told Fastmarkets. While Americans have to pay higher prices as a result of the tariff, premiums paid in Europe and Japan have fallen slightly. Demand for automotive vehicles, which are increasingly aluminum intensive, power transmission investment, housing development and electrical appliances create aluminum demand. more information Accept. The dispute over tariffs is continuing to impact markets across several asset classes, from equities to agriculture and metals. Supply and demand balance Market to remain very tight, with estimated 455Kt global deficit Tradable commodity grade production to fall as producers increase VAP output Tight primary/secondary spreads to continue to underpin the demand for primary aluminium Attractiveness of “cash and carry” deals Like copper, iron ore and other industrial metals, aluminum prices closely track Chinese economic growth. In the long term, underlying demand-supply dynamics tend to impact metal prices. View more reports from Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group. "We sold 300 million more cans of beer in the first nine months of 2020 than we did in the same period in 2019 in the United States alone. Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX. In the July poll, analysts had expected a deficit of 88,000 tonnes next year. Explore historical market data straight from the source to help refine your trading strategies. If the imposing of U.S. tariffs on China slows its economic growth or causes the country to devalue its currency, it could depress aluminum prices around the world. Chinese official GDP has an even stronger correlation with aluminum prices up to one year in advance, but official Chinese GDP has been unusually stable of late, showing between 6.5% and 7.0% growth in each quarter since early 2015. Any slowdown in China could create a global supply glut that could depress prices, especially in Europe and Japan. The current aluminium price “is just high enough above cost of production” to allow smelters to launch or resume operations after shutdowns, AZ China’s Adkins said. One of the conclusions of the LME Week (held between October 27 and November 1) is that a combination of weak macroeconomic data and an anticipated increase of global aluminium supplies is prompting expectations that more metal will be held in financing deals for long-term gain. The daily average output still managed to climb to 96,700 tonnes per day in September, according to Reuters calculations, up from about 95,900 tonnes per day in August, which has one more day. Erik Norland. Over half of additional volume demand in 2017 will be accounted for by China. It is essential to address a situation like Coronavirus in the present study. The main downside risk to U.S. aluminum prices could be a sudden removal of tariffs. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). China churned out 2.90 million tonnes of the metal last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said, down 2.5% from 2.973 million tonnes in August. Chinese demand will be critical for the future direction of aluminum prices globally. The bottom line is that there is enough aluminium whenever there is need for it. Mostar signed a five-year deal this week with British-Swiss firm Glencore plc for the supply... Russian Federation aluminium giant UC Rusal announced yesterday that it has received an A- rating in its first-ever assessment by... Base metals prices reacted positively to the progress registered in the latest round of US – China trade talks in mid-October, but the markets remained cautious about the prospects for a final agreement. The latest move brings the billet premium to an all-time low. Production cuts in China and falling inventories indicating market deficits and seasonally higher demand towards the end of the year, did not manage to boost LME prices. Total exports of unwrought aluminum, including primary metal, alloy and semis, were 5.8 million tonnes last year, up 21 percent on 2017. This apparent stability might reflect the growing diversification of the Chinese economy into services but nevertheless we think that it understates the true degree of volatility in China’s industrial sector. Aluminium Powder Comprehensive Study by Type (Spherical Aluminum Powder, Ferro Aluminium Powder, Atomized Aluminium Powder, Leafing Aluminium Powder, Others), Application (Explosives, Paints, Fingerprint Powder, Rocket Fuel, Others), Form (Atomized aluminium powder,, Aluminium flake powder,, Aluminium paste and, Aluminium pigment powder), End Use (Industrial, Automotive, … What’s more, a large part of stocks is being kept in unregistered (non-LME) warehouses, which means availability is still ample. World primary aluminium production fell in September to 5.163 million tonnes, down 2.6% year-on-year and 3.12% on the month, according to the latest data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). CME Group is the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace. At the same time, there are no reliable and accurate statistics on how much new scrap goes back into the production process over closed-loop schemes, or how much old scrap has replaced orders of primary aluminium. Understand how the bond market moved back to its normal trading range, despite historic levels of volatility. It appears that the U.S. tariff will reduce the quantity of aluminum used in the United States, resulting in a small but measurable supply glut in Europe and Asia. China’s gross domestic product growth slowed to 6.0% year-on-year in the third quarter, its weakest pace in almost three decades. The slowdown in key sectors such as the European car industry is putting the aluminum industry on course for annual demand growth of 1% to 2% this year, according to Wood Mackenzie. So far, the U.S. has imposed only a 10% tariff on $34 billion of Chinese goods, too small to make much of a difference. Now, they are almost 20% higher. The pandemic brought on substantial growth in single-serving consumption of carbonated beverages. In September, China’s aluminium production fell 1.6% from a year earlier, following outages at two big smelters this summer: top producer China Hongqiao Group’s facilities were hit by flooding on Aug. 11, and Xinfa Group also closed pot lines due to an explosion a week later. Aluminium is a widely used metal and one of the most energy intensive industries, and therefore it has been included in most energy models and scenarios. Production amounted to 47.549 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2019, dropping 0.99% from 48.023 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2018. Global mining production in 2017 was close to 60,000 metric tons, more than triple what the world was mining in 1994 (Figure 5). Looking back at the main trends in the aluminum space in 2019, Wood Mackenzie Senior Analyst Ami Shivkar pointed to global primary aluminum demand, which was at its lowest level in a … 2021 PREVIEW: Demand growth to support SHFE aluminium price in H1 but surplus weighs According to information from customs authorities, China exported 4.37 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium and semi-aluminium products in the first nine months of the year – 2.8% more than in the previous year. He is responsible for generating economic analysis on global financial markets by identifying emerging trends, evaluating economic factors and forecasting their impact on CME Group and the company’s business strategy, and upon those who trade in its various markets. The latest economic parameters in the EU and the US also indicate slowing growth. © 2020 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved. World demand for aluminum (primary and secondary/recycled) is projected to expand 5.8 percent per year through 2017 to 82.5 million metric tons. Analysts expect cash LME aluminium to average US$ 1814 a tonne in 2020, up 6% from the current price. “The story for 2020 is likely to be about the pace at which smelter cuts emerge to balance demand trends.”. Chinese demand will be critical for the future direction of aluminum prices globally. But the average is deceptive, because sharp gains for nickel of over 50% cover the fact that half of the metals are in the red, with losses of up to 15%. 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